Oscars 2011 Prediction Scorecard

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To go back to   Oscar Part II
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Total Predictions: 15
Total Correct: 9
% Accurate:  60% (Chance ~ 20%)

Pretty decent?

Actress in a Supporting Role

This is subject to revision once I see Ms. Steinfield in True Grit. Helena Bonham Carter was very impressive and stands a good chance and may benefit from vote-splitting for The Fighter. Melissa Leo was most impressive as the mother of 10 kids. She wears heels, tight-fitting clothes, smokes, swears and so believably plays the blue-collar, lower-class mother that it's hard to imagine anyone outdoing that. Then, quite oddly in the very same movie, Amy Adams as Mark Wahlberg's girlfriend plays the a younger, tougher version of Melissa Leo and one is amazed. She is Leo's alter ego slightly updated and comically referred to in the movie as the 'MTV girl' (someone who is loose and wild). The votes will be split to negate either's chances.

Update: I had to considerably revise the above after watching Hailee Steinfield in True Grit a little while ago. What a great performance! I had initially picked Helena Bonham Carter, but that role that pales in comparison to what I just saw. I do have a soft spot for Melissa Leo, but Hailee was superb as the precocious, headstrong, and gutsy Mattie Ross. Anyone who can across as an equal to the talent of a Jeff Bridges/Rooster Cockburn and a Matt Damon/Texas Ranger deserves it.
Who should win: Hailee Steinfield
Who will win: Hailee Steinfield
Who won: Melissa Leo 
Comment: Very happy to hear to know Ms. Leo even though I bungled the prediction with too much punditry.

Actor in a Supporting Role

I have not seen the other movies, but I would hazard that it's going to between Batman and Capt. Barbossa. Christian Bale so totally embodies the washed-up, crackhead former 'Pride of Lowell' that I thought that it would really be hard to top that performance this year. The Fighter is a wonderful movie and when you think that all the possible boxing movies have been made, what could possibly be done differently? An interesting exercise to list all the great boxing movies (Recently: Ali, Raging Bull, Cinderella Man, Million Dollar Baby come to mind, what else?) Then I saw Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech and he doesn't knock you out as much as astounds you like a magician - the precision, the control, it's a master at work. Nothing was overdone, not a single superflous action or gesture, not a single wrong note. The only thing that might count against Rush is that he has possibly won every accolade there is to win. But to deny this because of that would be a travesty. Sadly, The Fighter does down in this one.
Who should win: Geoffrey Rush
Who will win: Geoffrey Rush
Who won: Christian Bale
Comment: Guess in this case I was right in being a pundit? Glad that Bale and Leo are bringing attention to The Fighter

Animated Feature Film

Not much to say here.
Who should win:Toy Story 3
Who will win:Toy Story 3
Who won: Toy Story 3

Set Decoration

Inception captured everyones imagination over the summer and has made some lasting contribution in the 'weird thought-experiment movie' category and will be a perennial cult favorite. Though it truly deserves an Oscar only in this category, which it will and should win barring King's Speech mania that may have taken over the hearts and minds of the Academy members.
Who should win: Inception
Who will win: Inception
Who won:  Alice In Wonderland

Film Editing

Black Swan was very tight, and I don't really see a reason for the The King's Speech winning. If there was a close second, then I would put The Social Network
Who should win: Black Swan
Who will win: Black Swan
Who won: The Social Network

Foreign Language Film

Innaritu's Biutiful with Bardem was interesting and this movie got more eyeballs than the others. So, just based on the campaigning, I think it may win. This is always the most interesting category. On my list of things to do: I have to see every single Foreign Language Oscar winner since 1980. I have three more to go. So, if Biutiful wins my list will stay the same. So I am rooting for it.
Who should win: Biutiful
Who will win: No clue.
Who won: In a Better World” Denmark
Comment:  Okay!  +1

Music (Original Score)

To be frank, I seriously think the King's Speech has been over-nominated. I don't think it's going to win that many Oscars. I could well be wrong. We will find out tomorrow.
The soundtrack for The Social Network captures the frantic energy, the scheming, adrenaline rush of money and power and makes the entire movie more effective. Alexandre Desplat has been excellent as usual, but this will be on his rack as something that he did. His other work has been so much more memorable.
Who should win: The Social Network
Who will win: The Social Network
Who won: The Social Network


A bit of tough choice between The Black Swan and The King's Speech. would go with the former for the excellent filming of the dance sequences. For the first time we have so many nominees in this category for movies that don't really have panoramic locales.
Who should win:Black Swan
Who will win:Black Swan

Who won :“Inception” Wally Pfister

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Coen brothers did a wonderful job with the script and made a really gritty, realistic True Grit.
But, I would hand it to Aaron Sorkin. Beautiful work!
Who should win:The Social Network
Who will win:The Social Network
Who won:The Social Network

Writing (Original Screenplay)

I am bit surprised that neither the Black Swan nor Blue Valentine made it here. They would not have won. The King's Speech truly deserves this one. The other nominations barring Firth and Rush are just hype.
Who should win:The King's Speech
Who will win:The King's Speech
Who won: The King's Speech - David Seidler

Short Film (Animated)

(see separate post on descriptions and predictions on the short films)

Who should win: The Lost Thing
Who will win: The Lost Thing
Who won: The Lost Thing

Short Film (Live Action)

Who should win:Na Wewe
Who will win:Na Wewe
Who won: God of Love
Comment: Luke Matheny said on-stage that all the  movies are available on iTunes. I highly recommend checking them all out. 

Actor in a Leading Role

Franco gave a great performance but should be happy to be nominated and is the weakest prospect.
I wasn't particularly impressed by Bardem. Pretty decent job, but not enough to win. Jeff Bridges won last year, so that kind of goes against him slightly. The way John Wayne played it is almost syrupy in comparison. But, Bridges is not really a contender. The two strongest candidates are Jesse Eisenberg and Colin Firth. I should check the 'likes' on Facebook for his portrayal of the nerdy, egotistical, socially awkward Mark Zuckerberg. Colin Firth though deserves to win not just for this role, but turning in great performances throughout his career. This one's long overdue. This will be his first. The next time he wins would be when he plays an explosive (as opposed to implosive) angry man, a mad man. Do a Robert DeNiro sometime. But, he is the current champion 'Milquetoast of the Movies'.
Who should win: Colin Firth
Who will win: Colin Firth
Who won: Colin Firth

Actress in a Leading Role

Again, I have only seen the last two and I will wing it saying that there are the only ones that matter. I thought overall Blue Valentine was an excellent movie and both Ryan Gosling (where is he?) and Michelle Williams did an excellent job first playing the goofy, cute lovers and then a married couple that grows apart. This may not quite be the winner for Michelle Williams. Natalie Portman was indeed perfect as both the White and Black Swan. That movie has really creeped out many people and it's entirely to Portman's credit. In this movie, she really doesn't say much, or even do much apart from dancing. What would you credit an actor who can suck you into their dark, crazy, neurotic world by just using the veins on their neck?
Who should win: Natalie Portman
Who will win: Natalie Portman
Who won:  Natalie Portman


The Coens are in a class of their own. This is not their best work (or rather re-work). Aronofsky did an excellent job of marshaling the talent of Natalie Portman and adapting Tchaikovsky's wonderful ballet. I personally think that David Fincher deserves this award for presenting the whole story of Facebook (with some artistic license). He didn't really have a star cast of any sort and it's a tricky story to bring on screen. It's not a feel-good movie like The King's Speech and people have strong and differing opinions on their judgement is. Though what's going to happen is that The King's Speech is going to win the double. Invariably, this happens and I don't really understand it. Ang Lee won for Brokeback Mountain, but the movie lost the Best Picture to Crash. Despite Annie Proulx hissy fit I think it was the correct choice. So this year, I feel it should be similarly so.
Who should win: The Social Network
Who will win: The King's Speech
Who won: The King's Speech

Best Picture

True Grit is the weakest of the lot, despite the great work by the trio - Bridges, Damon and Steinfield. Black Swan was little better, but it's Portman's movie and owes to much to the libretto and the score. I was very impressed with The Fighter. We've had enough of boxing movies and many have won already. The big message, if there was one was sort of lost. But, that being said there was a lot of freshness in the acting, in the approach and in the story-telling of the bouts. It comes a strong third.

I personally believe that The Social Network should win the double and is clearly a better movie from a lot of aspects than the The King's Speech.
Who should win:The Social Network
Who will win:The King's Speech
Who won: The King's Speech

1 comment:

Wavefunction said...

I also thought The Social Network should have won for directing. It was a very well-crafted movie with a crisp, superb pace. As for Black Swan, it was a conspiracy set up to allow Natalie Portman to win the Oscar. I think I saw most of the nominated films except "127 Hours" and "True Grit".